There is increasing evidence that human-forced climate change is having short and long term consequences for ecosystems and human communities (IPCC 2007a). Global mean temperatures have increased 0.2?C per decade since the 1970s, and global mean precipitation increased 2% in the last 100 years with a high probability of warming of more than 2°C over the next century (IPCC 2007a). In the short term, the frequency of extreme weather events such as cyclones, drought, heat waves and floods is expected to increase. According to the Germanwatch Global Climate Risk Index, Myanmar was one of the countries most affected by extreme weather events from 1990 to 2009 (Harmeling 2010). For example, the severe impacts of cyclone Nargis in 2008 resulted in the loss of over 100,000 human lives and the destruction of coastal ecosystems (Government of Union of Myanmar et al. 2008).
Myanmar is likely to be faced with temperature rising in several areas (Figure 12 in MOECAF 2012). According to climate scenario analysis done by an initial national communication project under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, temperature is going to increase over 1 degree Celsius in most part of the country within the next 30 years and this will have potential effects on agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, water resources, natural disasters, human migration, disease and human health as shown in Figure 6 (MOECAF 2012).
Regional climatological studies also highlight the impacts climate change may have on Myanmar’s ecosystems and people. Simulations using downscaled regional climate models show changes in annual mean Tmax (daily maximum temperature) range between 0.5 and 1.0 ?C over most parts of Myanmar in the cool-dry season. In the hot–dry season however, larger warming is simulated over southern Myanmar. By contrast, only slight warming (